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Get ready for another round of sticker shock at your local grocery stores and food markets.
The nation’s largest bank has just put out a chilling report that confirms what I have been warning about since the first week of March: A global food shortage is coming, caused by war and bad weather, leading to widespread famine as we get into 2027.
In a report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.
While we in America, Canada and Europe can expect to pay higher food prices and may have to cut back elsewhere, other countries will be in worse shape. Think about the migration storm that will cause, as people in the Third World leave their countries and head for wealthier countries that have more food.
“Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027,” Szentivanyi said, warning that “this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food inflation cycle is likely to exert pressure through 1H27.”
JP Morgan Chase’s report on a looming food crisis rocked the internet as people posted on it across social media platforms today.
What this means is that a larger segment of the population is going to wake up and start stocking up. That means prices will go up even faster than they have been, as demand increases, and those prices will rise faster than they would have if the masses hadn’t been suddenly jolted into reality by an establishment institution like JP Morgan Chase and all the press coverage that entails.
So before it’s too late and bulk purchases become exorbitant, I’d say now is the time to purchase in bulk if you can afford it. For those not in a position to buy in bulk, start buying an extra can or two each time you go to the grocery store and hopefully by next year you will have a stash that’s able to ease the pain.
Farmers facing shortages or overly expensive fertilizer, depending on their financial position, can either absorb the cost, use less of it or switch crops. Each choice would reduce supply and raise food prices after the next harvest.
“Rising fertilizer prices could lift global food inflation temporarily to 4-5%,” warned Szentivanyi, author of the JP Morgan report. She expects the most severe impact on food prices to appear after a months-long lag time, once we get into 2027.
That will bring another inflation shock for Americans who are still dealing with a price shock on gasoline, diesel and food prices.
Why JP Morgan sees a threat to the food supply
According to MoneyWise, the Middle East supplies roughly 42% of global urea exports and 27% of ammonia exports, two key fertilizer ingredients for staple crops.
The Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted those supplies. JP Morgan said nitrogen fertilizer prices rose between 25% and 50% from late February to April, while nitrogen markets are expected to remain tight through the second half of 2026.
Nitrogen fertilizer must be available when crops are planted and there are no widespread strategic reserves. JP Morgan estimates damaged fertilizer plants could take up to four years to repair, while some natural gas facilities could take up to five years.
Grain supplies also face pressure, thanks to the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine’s agricultural exports fell about 75% year over year during the first two weeks of August, as Russian attacks nearly halted Black Sea shipments. Ukraine produces around 6% of the world’s wheat and 11% of its corn.
Ukrainian strikes have also closed major grain terminals at Russia’s Novorossiysk port. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, shipping $9.2 billion worth of it in 2024.
Iran war getting ready to heat up again as Trump makes new threats and Iran promises more aggressive stance
Now that the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding has expired in the U.S./Israel-Iran War, both sides are talking about restarting attacks on the other.
President Trump even threatened today, August 17, to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of negotiations with Iran.
Shockingly, a detailed post to X over the weekend by former Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene stated that she has sources on the inside of the Trump administration who have reported to her that Trump has also discussed the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Iran.
Greene spent years as one of Trump’s most ardent supporters before breaking with him and eventually leaving her Georgia congressional seat after Trump threatened to unseat her in the primary election by running one of his toadies against her.
Writing on X on Sunday, Greene claimed that White House discussions of the nuclear option have gone considerably further than the public debate surrounding the war has suggested.
According to Greene, Trump and senior advisers are “discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings.”
I have repeatedly warned, most recently in my August 5 post, that the Iran war comes with a high risk of going nuclear. This would send radiation throughout the region and beyond, further destroying food crops, potentially for 10 years or more.
Trump, in my opinion, is exactly the type of leader who would resort to nuclear weapons if he thought that was his only way of avoiding defeat in a regional conflict against an opponent (such as Iran) that refuses to submit to his gunboat diplomacy. I believe if Trump was to decide to go down that route, it would backfire and only hasten the demise of the post-World War II American-led world order.
Backing up Greene’s allegations are the reports last week that the U.S. Pentagon is rewriting its nuclear doctrine to allow for first-strike use of shorter-range tactical nukes in a regional war scenario.
Meanwhile, Iranian leaders have repeatedly said they’re done talking with U.S. negotiators whom they see as untrustworthy peace partners. They announced they plan to wait until a new president takes office before restarting talks.
According to an August 17 Reuters report, Iranian leaders have also decided to take a new approach to the war, changing to a “fully offensive” military posture instead of merely responding defensively after each new military strike by the U.S. and/or Israel.
All of this adds up to more uncertainly and chaos in a world that is already drowning in it. It also adds further support to my theory that Trump was allowed a second term for the very reason that he is a known chaos agent who will not hesitate to turn established U.S policy and military doctrine on its head. Before the globalist power elites can implement their long sought after digital reset, they must first destroy what’s left of the old order. Trump is helping them do that in spades.
Leo, the rain last week in Indiana devastated the farmlands along with small towns. You are right about getting prepared the best you can.
As Jan Markell from Olive Tree Views says, "things are not falling apart, they are falling into place".